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Updated 2013 bowl projections, Week 15: FSU-OSU on course, BCS spot opens

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One day away from Selection Sunday, we're still hanging onto the same championship game. But the weekend's already given us some BCS shakeup.

College football's championship weekend is only two games old, and it's already given us a new morsel of drama. Thanks to Bowling Green's upset of Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship, a BCS at-large bid has opened up.

What had looked to be a BCS selection process with only one bowl (the Orange) actually having any choices to make has now become much more interesting.

Now Clemson, Oregon, and the runners-up in the Big 12 and Pac-12 all have a chance at the spot the Huskies have vacated. Well, technically, the spot UCF vacated, since the Knights (who've clinched a spot) will slide down to the Fiesta. Let's walk through the scenarios below, but for now, this is your bowl picture:

BowlMatchup (Not always tied to conference standings)TeamTeam
1/6/2014BCS National Championship (Pasadena)BCS 1 vs. BCS 2Florida StateOhio State
1/3/2014Orange (Miami)Florida State replacement vs. At-large 1AlabamaClemson
1/2/2014Sugar (New Orleans)SEC 1 vs. At-large 2MissouriBaylor
1/1/2014Rose (Pasadena)Ohio State replacement vs. Pac-12 1Michigan StateStanford
1/1/2014Fiesta (Glendale, AZ)Big 12 1 vs. At-large 4Oklahoma StateUCF
1/5/2014GoDaddy (Mobile, AL)MAC 2 vs. Sun Belt 2Northern IllinoisArkansas State
1/4/2014BBVA Compass (B'ham)SEC 9 vs. AAC 5Mississippi StateRutgers
1/3/2014Cotton (Arlington)Big 12 2 vs. SEC 3BaylorLSU
1/1/2014Capital One (Orlando)Big Ten 2 vs. SEC 2WisconsinAuburn
1/1/2014Gator (Jacksonville)Big Ten 5 vs. SEC 6MinnesotaGeorgia
1/1/2014Heart of DallasBig Ten 7 vs. C-USAPitt*Rice
1/1/2014Outback (Tampa)Big Ten 3 vs. SEC 4IowaSouth Carolina
12/31/2013Chick-fil-A (Atlanta)ACC 2 vs. SEC 5DukeTexas A&M
12/31/2013Independence (Shreveport)SEC 10 vs. ACC 7Washington State*Georgia Tech
12/31/2013Liberty (Memphis)C-USA 1 vs. SEC 8MarshallVanderbilt
12/31/2013Sun (El Paso)ACC 4 vs. Pac-12 4Virginia TechUCLA
12/30/2013Alamo (San Antonio)Big 12 3 vs. Pac-12 2OklahomaOregon
12/30/2013Armed Forces (Ft. Worth)MWC 3 vs. C-USA/NavySan Diego StateNavy
12/30/2013Holiday (San Diego)Pac-12 3 vs. Big 12 5Arizona StateKansas State
12/30/2013Music City (Nashville)ACC 6 vs. SEC 7Boston CollegeOle Miss
12/28/2013Belk (Charlotte)AAC 3 vs. ACC 5CincinnatiNorth Carolina
12/28/2013Buffalo Wild Wings (PHX)Big 12 4 vs. Big Ten 4TexasMichigan
12/28/2013Pinstripe (New York)Big 12 7 vs. AAC 4Notre DameHouston
12/28/2013Russell Athletic (Orlando)AAC 2 vs. ACC 3LouisvilleMiami
12/27/2013Fight Hunger (San Francisco)Pac-12 6 vs. BYU/ACC 9WashingtonBYU
12/27/2013Military (Annapolis)ACC 8 vs. C-USAMarylandMiddle Tennessee
12/27/2013Texas (Houston)Big 12 6 vs. Big Ten 5Texas TechNebraska
12/26/2013Little Caesars (Detroit)MAC 1 vs. Big Ten 8Bowling GreenSyracuse*
12/26/2013Poinsettia (San Diego)MWC 2 vs. ArmyFresno StateOhio*
12/24/2013HawaiiMWC 5 vs. C-USASan Jose StateNorth Texas
12/23/2013Beef O'Brady's (St. Pete.)AAC 6 vs. C-USAWestern Kentucky*East Carolina
12/21/2013Idaho Potato (Boise)MAC 3 vs. MWC 6BuffaloColorado State
12/21/2013Las VegasMWC 1 vs. Pac-12 5Utah StateUSC
12/21/2013New Mexico (Albuquerque)MWC 4 vs. Pac-12 7Boise StateArizona
12/21/2013New OrleansSun Belt 1 vs. C-USAUL LafayetteTulane

* Taking another conference's unfilled spot.

Bold: Already accepted bid.

BCS bowls

If Florida State and Ohio State win their conferences on Saturday, they'll advance to the BCS National Championship, whether SEC fans like it or not. There will be yelling.

If they go, the Orange will have the first pick, since it will get to replace No. 1 FSU. Since Bama will likely rank in the top four, thereby giving it an automatic bid, it's the obvious choice. The Rose would get to go second, to replace No. 2 Ohio State, and since Michigan State's unlikely to fall out of the top 14, you can pretty much write in the Spartans no matter what.

The Orange goes next, by virtue of having the first pick in the non-replacement rotation. This is where it gets tricky, since one of about four teams will be picked here. We're still assuming the Orange's traditional (and ever-increasing) ties to the ACC mean Clemson's the pick, giving us Dabo Swinney against his alma mater.

The Sugar gets to pick the SEC champion's opponent next -- I'm picking Mizzou to beat Auburn, by the way. If the choices boil down to Baylor and Oregon, assuming Oklahoma State wins the Big 12 and takes the Fiesta Bowl's spot, I think the Bears are the more attractive choice. They have only one loss, they have an exciting offense, and the bulk of their fans are just a few hours away in East Texas.

That leaves the Fiesta with Oklahoma State vs. UCF and no choice in the matter at all. A good game. Not a great BCS bowl. But a good game.

About eight teams will be left out

There are 78 bowl-eligible teams right now. That number should hold through Saturday night, but there are still only 70 spots to go around. There will be many justifiably disappointed fan bases around the country, and quite a few of them will likely be in the Sun Belt, sorry to say.

Your turn

What's horrifically wrong here? What are you angry about? Any of these games look extra appealing?

More from SB Nation college football:

Projecting Championship Weekend: 66% chance of FSU-Ohio State

SEC Championship breakdown | Big Ten title the main event

Jameis Winston case ends in a media circus

College football news | NIU to miss BCS: Who’s taking the Sugar spot?

Long CFB reads | The night Baylor died in Stillwater


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