A couple of star players who are still performing well are also on this list, but they likely won't get hit as hard by regression as Crisp and Ibanez.
In order to understand the impact that severe regression can have on a team, one should look no further than the 2013 Angels. Though they ultimately ended up as above-average hitters after adjusting for park effect, Josh Hamilton and Albert Pujols both finished with career-lows in OPS. In addition, Jered Weaver, who had finished in the top five in Cy Young voting for three consecutive years, was held back by injuries and a spike in his opponents' batted ball luck.
These things can't always be predicted, but a lot of times age, luck and unrealistic expectations create red flags that are hard to ignore. Here are some of the players in the American League West that might fall victim to regression in 2014.
Astros
Jarred Cosart. Yes, this is an easy one, largely because not many starting pitchers can go through a full season with a sub-2.00 ERA like Cosart did in 10 starts last year. However, Cosart is due for more than a small spike in his ERA, as SB Nation's Steven Goldman mentioned last month.
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
Cosart walked more batters (35) than he struck out (33) in 2013 but was aided by some serious BABIP luck; balls hit off of the 23-year-old right-hander found holes at a .246 clip, more than 50 points under the league-average mark. Cosart does have the benefit of a very good ground ball rate, but if he continues to nibble like he did in his debut, he's going to be in for a rude awakening.
Angels
Raul Ibanez. He has to cool down sometime, right? Ibanez is pushing 42 years old but continues to hit for power like he's about 15 years younger than that. He hit 29 homers for Seattle in 2013, a feat that's even better when you consider 17 of those came at Safeco Field.
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
Ibanez benefited from the newly moved-in fences, which actually raised Safeco's park factor to a near-average level. Angels Stadium has a similar park factor, but Ibanez is a year older and what little on-base skills he had before have started to deteriorate. There's little doubt that Ibanez still has some value in his bat, but he has absolutely none of it in the field. Whether or not he'll still be able to hit enough to make up for it is a valid concern.
Athletics
Coco Crisp. After hitting 19 home runs in the previous two seasons combined, Crisp exploded in 2013 for 22, eclipsing his previous career-high by six. Guys who are approaching their mid-30s don't often start experiencing a sustained power surge, so it's pretty safe to say that Crisp isn't going to hit that many taters in 2014.
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
Crisp might also be in line for a drop in on-base percentage to go with a likely decrease in power. Crisp walked 61 times last season, easily passing his previous career-best mark in that category. He'd never walked more than 50 times in a season before 2013, suggesting it might be an outlier unless his eyes are getting better at his relatively old age.
Mariners
Robinson Cano. Yankee Stadium is a left-handed hitter's dream. Safeco Field? Not so much. Cano was a great hitter no matter where he played last season, posting a .303/.366/.523 line on the road to go with his .325/.401/.508 mark at home. However, having to play 81 games in a historically run-suppressing environment such as Safeco is enough to drag anyone's production down.
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
Cano is still going to be an elite talent, at least for a few years. But the pressure of performing under the shadow of a huge contract has eaten up players with even better track records, not to mention the fact that Cano is entering his early 30s and is probably due for some natural regression anyway. It's certainly not a given that he'll experience a huge drop-off, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on.
Rangers
Adrian Beltre. There aren't a lot of players on this team with big warning flags signaling a likely drop in production, and Beltre doesn't really have any either. He's getting up there in age, sure, but he's also hit for power and average at a consistent level since leaving Seattle in 2009, and his ability to largely avoid striking out makes up for his low walk totals.
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
![]()
More from our team sites ![]()
Age can't be completely ignored, though, and Beltre is kind of an "old 35" considering he's entering his 17th year in the league. He might not fall off a ton, but expecting Beltre to hit 30 home runs and maintain a .315 batting average while playing very good defense for too much longer might not be wise.