The last player to lose while holding a five-shot lead after 54 holes at the U.S. Open was Mike Brady ... in 1919. So as you might expect, Martin Kaymer is a heavy favorite to win on Sunday.
Martin Kaymer continued his domination of the 114th U.S. Open field on Saturday, holding on in brutal scoring conditions to take a six-shot lead at the 54-hole mark. He did not have the same game as the prior two days, and no one was coming close to that 65 score with the way the course was setup in the third round anyways. But even without his top form, Kaymer still held on, mitigating the bad shots off the tee and with his irons by repeatedly converting up on the green with his putter.
The five-shot lead is one of the bigger 54-hole margins in U.S. Open history, and as such, Kaymer is a ridiculous 1/3 favorite with 18 holes to play. He's in such a good position to win his second major championship, that Bovada decided to go ahead and make a separate "non-Kaymer odds to win" division. It seems there's been a "B Flight" of players all week, and a birdie on the 18th to get Kaymer back in front by five only added to that notion at the end of another day.
A win on Sunday would be Kaymer's third PGA victory, and he definitely gets his moneysworth. The first victory stateside was the PGA Championship. The second was last month's Players Championship, featuring the deepest field of the year and often considered the game's "fifth major." Now he's on the verge of winning what's referred to as the toughest test in golf. It would be an Angel Cabrera-esque run, except Kaymer tends to pop up and factor on a weekly basis, even at the lesser events. El Pato doesn't seem to bother too much with those.
The closest players to Kaymer are Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton, both at 3-under. Fowler shares the second-best odds with Henrik Stenson at 10/1. He'll be in the final pairing with Kaymer after posting an incredible 3-under round of 67 before Compton got into the house. Rickie will need to do that again, under the same or tougher conditions, on Sunday in order to put a scare in the German machine.
Here are your updated odds heading into Sunday:
| Player | Odds to Win |
| Martin Kaymer | 1/3 |
| Henrik Stenson | 10/1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 10/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 14/1 |
| Erik Compton | 25/1 |
| Brandt Snedeker | 40/1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 50/1 |
| Jordan Spieth | 80/1 |
| Kevin Na | 80/1 |
| Justin Rose | 80/1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 125/1 |
| Brendon De Jonge | 200/1 |
| Chris Kirk | 200/1 |
| Adam Scott | 250/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 200/1 |
| Jason Day | 300/1 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 300/1 |
| Francesco Molinari | 300/1 |