There are at least two ownership groups vying to bring pro soccer to Sin City, but it's all still a lot of talk.
Las Vegas is a city built on the backs of people who believe they can beat the odds. So maybe it makes perfect sense that at least two groups are competing for the opportunity to bring Major League Soccer to the desert oasis despite there being multiple markets with significant head starts on grabbing that coveted 24th team.
In one corner are Findlay Sports and Entertainment. They have the benefit of already working with the city of Las Vegas on coming up with a stadium plan and being locals, having made their money in Southern Nevada car dealerships. How far along those plans are is an open question, though, as renderings of their stadium were apparently released prematurely.
In the other corner is gaming industry entrepreneur Jason Ader, who's apparently heading a group of Asian investors.
Both groups say they've already met with MLS officials and are proposing to build stadiums that would cost between $150-$200 million. The working assumption seems to be that the stadium would need to have a retractable roof and have some serious air-conditioning that would keep temperatures from becoming unplayable in the summer heat. Ader added that he's expecting to be asked to pay a $100 million expansion fee and is trying to secure about $50 million more to cover operating expenses for the first three years. Assuming Findlay Sports are using the same math, either group would be preparing to inject about $350 million into MLS.
It's not hard to understand why MLS is at least entertaining these offers. If one of these owners can really get shovels in the ground and follow through on building a world-class facility, MLS would be crazy not to put a team there one way or another.
But it's hard to see that team being the final expansion spot. Minneapolis and Sacramento have to be considered the front-runners at this point, and while they lack the glitz and glamor of Las Vegas, they are as close to turn-key operations as MLS gets as both draw well and have feasible paths to suitable stadiums.
The Sacramento Republic, as you've probably heard, are well on their way to breaking the USL Pro attendance record and are currently averaging nearly 14,000 per game. If that was the only thing they had working for them, they wouldn't really be in the running. But that kind of buzz is what could possibly draw someone like the Sacramento Kings' Vivek Ranadive to join the group and fast-track a new stadium to be built.
Minnesota United are drawing about 7,500 per game despite playing in suburban Blaine, Minn. MLS isn't going hand over a franchise just based on that, but their owners are already working with the Minnesota Twins and trying to get a soccer-specific stadium built near Target Field. And even if those efforts don't come to fruition, the Minnesota Vikings are openly pursuing a MLS franchise to help fill dates at their new retractable roof stadium.
Las Vegas may not have to literally get in line behind those two, but it will have to prove itself more attractive than them as well as places like San Diego, Austin, San Antonio and St. Louis.
Of course, securing funding for the stadium would change the dynamic considerably, but the chances of shovels hitting dirt before the 24th team has been handed out seem remote at best. MLS may not be in a hurry to name its 24th team, but if they are to take the field by the self-imposed deadline of 2020 the clock is certainly ticking.
Las Vegas' best hope, then, might be hidden in a quote from Ader: "The second mouse gets the cheese. This is not something that will happen overnight."
While Ader was specifically addressing his group's spot behind Findlay in the city's pecking order, he could have also been speaking to the need to be patient for an opportunity. While the working assumption is that there's only one spot left unspoken for, that's not entirely right. Miami is far from a done deal at this point. David Beckham and his group have seemingly hit a dead end in terms of finding a waterfront stadium site near downtown Miami and are reportedly looking outside the city. It remains to be seen if MLS's agreement with Beckham permits him to build a stadium outside of Miami, but it seems almost equally as plausible that Las Vegas could be seen as more desirable than Ft. Lauderdale. Might MLS push Beckham to work out some kind of partnership in Sin City if Miami becomes untenable? We're might not be particularly close to that, but shiny stadiums in glitzy towns tend to change the tenor of conversations.
But here's the thing whenever Vegas is involved: There are always a lot of ifs. MLS has supposedly had eyes for Las Vegas almost ever since its founding, but for all the potential owners and crazy stadium ideas, there's never been anything close to a concrete plan. Las Vegas could be a crown-jewel of MLS and the city is probably well positioned to respond to its first top-tier professional sports team. But it's still way too early to start planning those away trips.
Las Vegas is a city filled with mirages. This still feels a lot like another one.