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I'm back with my Week 3 NFL picks against the spread. Favorites bounced back to 8-8 ATS in Week 2. Will the trend move toward the favorites in Week 3?
Week 3 of the 2014 NFL season is officially underway, which means it is time for another next five picks in the LVH SuperContest. The contest includes more than 1,400 participants picking games each week to see who can come out on top by the end of the season. I am off to a 5-5 start, having gone 2-3 in Week 1 and 3-2 in Week 2. I hit on the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots and San Diego Chargers, but lost on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and San Francisco 49ers.
Speaking of the Bucs, Week 3 got off to an ugly start courtesy of them. The Atlanta Falcons thumped Tampa Bay, 56-14, on Thursday Night Football. The Falcons could have easily shot past 70 points if they had actually kept their starters in the game. Instead, they went to the bench in the third quarter and coasted to an easy win. I picked the Bucs each of the first two weeks of the LVH SuperContest, and was promptly burned each time. I was tempted to pick the Falcons this time around, but I figured Thursday Night Football might make this a little more difficult.
As always, our partners at OddsShark have staked me and a handful of other participants in the SuperContest. You can track all of us here, and you can follow the standings here. Here are my picks for Week 3, with home team in caps.
BUFFALO BILLS vs. San Diego Chargers (+1): The Bills are officially hot, off to a 2-0 start, 4-1 against the spread in their last five games, and 8-2 ATS in their last ten home games. The problem in this one is that the Chargers are off to a solid start as well. They are 1-1 straight up, but 2-0 ATS to start the season. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games, and 5-0 ATS in their last five road games. That being said, I like the Bills' streak, and I prefer them at home in front of a raucous Ralph Wilson Stadium crowd. Pick: Bills
CINCINNATI BENGALS vs. Tennessee Titans (+7): The Bengals are off to a strong start to this season, with wins at Baltimore and at home against the Falcons. Cincinnati covered both games, and is 4-1 ATS in their last five games. They are also 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Tennessee is a solid 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games, but is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven overall games. I'll stick with the hot Bengals. Pick: Bengals
Baltimore Ravens vs. CLEVELAND BROWNS (+1): It's hard not to like the Browns coming off their big upset of the New Orleans Saints. The Ravens are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against the Browns, but this pick is based as much on thinking maybe this is a new Browns squad. They are 1-1 SU, and 2-0 ATS to start the season. I'm sure this is when they trip up, but I'll try and pretend these aren't your father's Browns this year. Pick: Browns
Indianapolis Colts vs. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (+7.5): This is probably my least confident pick of the bunch. I could see the Jaguars springing an upset at home, but I also could see them getting thoroughly destroyed. For now, the Colts are not an inspiring team outside of Indianapolis. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Jacksonville, but overall, they have lost four of their last five games. I think the Colts probably win this game, but it will be a tough one for them. Pick: Jaguars
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS vs. Denver Broncos (+5): This is the first time in 32 games the Broncos have been an underdog. Think about that for a second. They have been favored in every game they have played since mid-2012. While the Broncos might want some revenge for their embarrassing Super Bowl 48 performance, I don't think they get it up in Seattle. The Seahawks can be an inconsistent road team, but at home I will stick with them. They are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 home games. The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, but CenturyLink Field is a different beast than normal road games. Pick: Seahawks
