PredictionMachine.com simulated the Seminoles' season 50,000 times with Mississippi State's schedule.
For all of Florida State's accolades -- undefeated record, defending national champions, reigning Heisman winner at quarterback and a whole host of NFL talent on their roster -- there has been one haunting narrative following them throughout their 2014 playoff chase: their inconsistent play against a relatively weak conference schedule.
The Seminoles have played tough games against Notre Dame, Oklahoma State and Clemson, but the ACC is nowhere near as deep as some of the other major conferences, leaving some with doubts about Florida State's ability to hang with the other contenders.
PredictionMachine.com decided to take on this debate by simulating Florida State's season 50,000 times, with Mississippi State's schedule. They found the Seminoles would be favored to win all but three games -- road trips to LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss.
# of Games Favored | Expected Record | Avg. Points For | Avg. Points Against | Undefeated Season |
9 | 8.3-3.7 | 33.1 | 24.4 | 0.24% chance |
Among real SEC West teams, that's closest to our projections for Auburn from last week, behind both Mississippi schools and Alabama.
Take this prediction as seriously as you like, but it's worth noting PredictionMachine projected last year's national title game to be Alabama over Ohio State.