Are you a 5-star football recruit? Here are your odds of getting drafted

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The top high school prospects have much better chances to make the NFL than others do, but let’s look more closely.

Being a five-star high school prospect correlates well with likely college success, and we know blue-chip recruits are much more likely than others to be drafted into the NFL.

But how well does five-star status predict your chances of becoming a draft pick? The answer varies, depending on a recruit’s class year and position.

From 2000-14, there were 522 five-star recruits, with 53 percent of them eventually drafted.

That is significantly higher than other star rankings in a recent draft, which saw four-stars drafted at a 20 percent clip, three-stars at 6 percent, and two-stars 3 percent.

Let’s look by individual recruiting class, since modern national rankings became a thing. Some players from the 2015 and 2016 recruiting classes are still in school, so using these 16 years gives us a much clearer picture.

Over the years, a five-star’s odds of getting drafted have increased steadily.

For instance, the 2014 recruiting class saw the highest percentage of five-stars drafted, with 70 percent selected. Compare that with the 38 percent selected from the 2000 class.

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Since 2011, the numbers have been increasing consistently. Over the last three recruit classes for which there are no remaining players in school (2012-14), almost two of every three five-star recruits were drafted. That positive trend appears to be continuing in the 2015-16 classes so far.

A big reason for these numbers getting better? Recruiting rankings getting more and more accurate due to advances in technology and exposure.

One of the most noticeable differences between the rankings from the early beginnings of the industry (around the turn of the century) and now is the smaller percentage of elite players who fall through the cracks.

”I think we do a better job these days of finding the in-state talents who stay in the state, from-a-smaller-place kind of guy. Like a Darren McFadden, who picked Arkansas and is from Arkansas, and no one else really paid close attention to him [Scout ranked McFadden the No. 9 running back nationally],” [Scout.com’s Scott] Kennedy said. “Twenty years ago, maybe no one paid attention to him at all. Now, everybody is going to see a guy like Darren McFadden, even in a small state like Arkansas, even though he stayed home and didn’t do the publicity tour like many of these guys have.”

Schools offering players scholarships earlierearlier in the annual recruiting calendar has also helped the industry get a head start on finding the best of the best.

It’s still probably easier to spot the future pros at some positions than it is at others.

To be sure, none of the following figures are based on adequate sample sets. For instance, there were only 16 five-star recruits labeled “athlete,” which basically means that player’s position will be determined in college, and just 15 as tight ends. Only one position, defensive line, even has 100 recruits in the sampled period, and even that isn’t enough from which to draw great conclusions.

But it is neat, so let’s get to it.

The following chart shows the frequency by which five-stars were picked by position from 2000-14, the recent five-year trend, and the difference between the two.

• Four positions (athlete, defensive line, defensive back, and tight end) stick out over the other five (linebacker, quarterback, receiver, running back, and offensive line), with a clear split of at least 60 percent draftees for the prior group, against less than 50 percent drafted for the former group.
• Interestingly, offensive line has the worst drafted rate, 43 percent. However, it also has the most improvement in the five-year sample spanning 2010-14, with 75 percent of five-stars in these classes becoming draft picks, including the 2012 class, in which all five five-star lineman were drafted. Recruiting services from 2000-04 were horrible at pegging the best offensive linemen: only six of the 24 five-star OL from then went on to be draft choices. Since then, five-star offensive linemen went on to be drafted at a 54 percent rate.
• Defensive back has always been a strong position for the rankings, but an 80 percent drafted figure over the last five classes examined is exceptional.
• Despite advanced quarterback training, private coaching, etc., the rankings aren’t much better over time at the game’s most high-profile position, judging by comparing the 2010-14 QB sample to the 2000-14 sample. However, comparing a 10-year average of 2000-09 against 2005-14, QB recruits were drafted at a 49 percent clip in the old sample, but a 59 percent clip in the more recent sample. This is a good example of how tiny sample sets can distort data.
• The one position which has seen a stark downturn is receiver. In the five most recent classes, fewer than one in three five-star receivers have been drafted. From 2000-09, 55 percent of five-star wideouts were selected. But from 2005-14, that number dropped to 43 percent. It is worth mentioning that four of the five five-star receivers from the 2015 class have been drafted, with a fifth still in school, so there is the possibility that this is on the way back up. It would be interesting to examine the NFL’s changing rules on defensive back contact, protecting the quarterback, etc., and how it has impacted the league’s valuing of certain traits at receiver.

Now, as we wait for more data in upcoming years, let’s see how many of these trends continue and which ones change.