NASCAR barely got the Nationwide series race in on Saturday at Talladega Superspeedway thanks to heavy morning rains and stubborn afternoon drizzle. The start of the race was delayed three hours and eventually shortened by ten laps because of darkness. It appears rain will continue to be a threat for the Sprint Cup Series today for the Aaron's 499.
The upper level storm system that pushed a cold front through Alabama on Saturday will end up being centered right over the state this afternoon. Unseasonably cold air associated with this system combined with daytime heating will lead to scattered areas of showers and even thunderstorms for the afternoon. Some of these showers and storms could have small hail.
The above image is from the high-resolution forecast model known as the NAM at the 1 p.m. EDT start of the Aaron's 499 at Talladega Superspeedway. While it is very difficult to know exactly where any cluster or areas of showers and storms will form during the afternoon, I am pretty confident we will see showers and storms form near and around Talladega Superspeedway.
DO WE RACE TODAY? That's the question every race fan wants to know. Many fans have already looked at various weather forecasts from the National Weather Service, Weather.com, AccuWeather or whatever weather app they have on the phone. I'm pretty sure most of them say the same thing, "Chilly with rain." Unfortunately that doesn't answer the question, "Do we race today?"
Yes I believer we will see Sprint Cup racing this afternoon. Showers and storms this afternoon are scattered and not continuous, meaning there will be windows and breaks for dry weather.
WILL WE GET ALL 188 LAPS COMPLETE? The likelihood of getting all 188 laps complete this afternoon is around 35 to 45 percent. I am fully expecting at least one if not more rain delays this afternoon. I wish I could tell you at exactly what time and for how long a shower or storm would affect today's race, but unfortunately that's just not possible.
COULD THE RACE BE POSTPONED TO MONDAY? While the odds of getting a complete race today is low, I think we have a 50 to 60 percent likelihood of getting an official race or a race that ends at or after lap 94.
WHAT'S MONDAY'S FORECAST? Very similar to today's weather. Chilly as the upper level storm system slowly slides east into Georgia. If the race were moved to Monday, my forecast would be the same as today's.
This is going to be one of those races where your watching the radar as much as you are watching the racing on the track.
Follow me on Twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN and like me on Facebook for the latest weather updates, as I expect there to be many updated through out the afternoon.
Conditions in Talladega, AL:Click here for Current Weather Conditions– Look at Doppler Radar | Mobile Friendly Site | Mobile Radar
SUNDAY:
11:00 a.m. EDT
Sprint Cup pre-race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 55
12:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup pre-race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57
1:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 58
2:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 58
3:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57
4:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57
5:00 p.m. EDT
Sprint Cup race – Cloudy, mostly cloudy, scattered rain showers – temp: 57